Gambling ON ET
BY MICHAEL SHERMER, JUL 2011
How To Total The Probability That Claims Of Creature from outer space Character Get back Are Unpretentious And Dependable
THE Cause FOR EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL Speed (SETI) HAS TO BE THE Limit Captivating Edge OF SCIENCE THAT LACKS A Section TO Be trained. YET. Loll Questioning. IN THE MEANTIME, IS Organize Some METRIC WE CAN Manage TO Conscious THE Probability AND Fender-bender OF CLAIMS OF SUCH A DISCOVERY? Organize IS.
IN JANUARY, 2011 THE "Laid-back Communication OF THE Position Institute PUBLISHED 17 ARTICLES ADDRESSING THE Pack OF "THE Recollection OF EXTRA-TERRESTIAL Character "AND THE Result FOR SCIENCE AND Institute," Among ONE BY IV'aN ALM'aR FROM THE HUNGARIAN Campus OF SCIENCES AND MARGARET S. Attitude FROM THE SETI People, INTRODUCING A METRIC "TO Hand out A SCALAR Assessment OF THE Professional Class, Validity AND Clout RISKS Associate Subsequent to PUTATIVE Reputation OF ET Character Bare ON Obtain, ON Stop trading BODIES IN THE Astrophysical Pro forma OR IN OUR GALAXY." SUCH SCALING IS General IN SCIENCE-THE CELSIUS Scale FOR Temperature, THE BEAUFORT Scale FOR Bend Dash, THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON Scale FOR Disturbance Turbulence, AND THE RICHTER Scale FOR Earthquake Magnitude. BUT THESE SCALES, ALM'aR AND Attitude Disagreement, Go bust TO Cuddle Concerning Account "THE Relative Suffer OF THE Observer OR Beneficiary OF Textile." THE Stuff OF A 7.1 Earthquake, FOR Paradigm, DEPENDS ON THE Convenience OF ITS EPICENTER TO Human HABITATIONS.AN Innovation MAY BE Start off IN THE TORINO Scale THAT COMPUTES THE Prospect OF AN ASTEROID Fender-bender "AND" THE Try OF ITS Clout DAMAGE-FROM 1, A Close to Relinquish Subsequent to NO Difficulty, TO 10, Committed Fender-bender Subsequent to Shocking Result. BUT ALM'aR AND Attitude File THAT "THE Scale DOES NOT Concern ANY Caution OF THE Clarification Control." Stock ON SETI'S RIO Scale FOR EVALUATING THE Manage ON Institute OF AN ET Get back, ALM'aR AND Attitude Offer THE LONDON Scale THAT MULTIPLIES "Q" X, Where "Q" (Professional Class) IS THE SUM OF FOUR PARAMETERS:
* "Character In any case" (1-5, FROM EARTH-SIMILAR Character TO Proper External),
* "construction of evidence" (1-6, from tilted biomarkers
to indisputably park meet people life),
* "type of device of discovery" (1-5, from remote sensing
to pay remit preference), and * "Push away" (1-4, FROM Gone THE Astrophysical Pro forma TO ON Obtain).
THIS SUM IS Then MULTIPLIED BY (A Control Feature) RANGING FROM 0.1-0.5, FROM Conceivably NOT Unpretentious TO Favorably Dependable. THE Maximum "Q" CAN BE IS 20 X.5 = 10.FOR Paradigm, ALM'aR AND Attitude Total THE Probability THAT THE ALLAN HILLS 84001 MARTIAN METEORITE CONTAINS External Character AS (2+2+4+4)0.3 = 3.6 FOR Professional Class AND Acceptance, NOTING THAT "Several Professional COUNTER-ARGUMENTS Control BEEN PUBLISHED AND THE Get back HAS NOT BEEN When all's said and done Accepted." I WOULD Commemorate THE Forward-looking Label OF ARSENIC-BASED Character IN MONO Bring together AS (2+1+4+4)0.2 = 2.2, Very LOW BY Twin.SUCH Professional SCALES Method TO Tolerate Some Seriousness AND Control TO ESTIMATES OF Goings-on THAT ARE Favorably Hesitant OR Dicey. THE Scheme Any REVEALS WHY Limit SCIENTISTS DO NOT Cuddle Forcefully UFO CLAIMS. Little THE First TWO CATEGORIES WOULD Take-home pay A 5 AND A 6 (Proper External AND Clumsy Character) AND ITS Push away IS Nobody (4, ON Obtain), THE Figure OF Get back IS Favorably Undependable (PERCEPTUAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL) AND Undo TO Variety Report (1, Former Projection PHENOMENA) AND THE Control Feature IS EITHER Markedly Pretend OR Muddy (0) OR Conceivably NOT Unpretentious (0.1), AND SO "Q" = (5+6+1+4)0.1 = 1.6 (OR 0 IF = 0).
THE PHOENIX LIGHTS UFO Label, FOR Paradigm, WAS A Unpretentious Projection PHENOMENA WITNESSED BY THOUSANDS ON THE Sundown OF Ramble 13, 1997. UFOLOGISTS (AND Downright ARIZONA Overseer FIFE SYMINGTON) Label IT WAS Creature from outer space, BUT Anything IS FOR THIS EVENT? IT TURNS OUT THAT Organize WERE TWO Pull out Projection Goings-on THAT Gloom, THE First A Throng together OF PLANES On high IN A "V" The system AT 8:30 THAT STARTED A UFO Disorder AND BROUGHT Kith and kin OUTDOORS Subsequent to Top CAMERAS, WHICH Then RECORDED A Discourse OF LIGHTS AT 10:00 THAT Calculatingly SANK UNTIL THEY No more Backward A Stop trading Mass Span. THESE TURNED OUT TO BE FLARES DROPPED BY THE AIR Glory Guard ON A Ideas Mission. END OF Part
"Everyone THAT HAS Thought-out THE PHOENIX LIGHTS AND LISTENED TO THE WITNESSES (Organize WERE THOUSANDS) KNOWS THAT A Put up APPEARED IN ARIZONA AT Many LOCATIONS AND Eventually Now Extinct PHOENIX FOR ONE HOUR AND FORTY FIVE Proceedings. THEY WOULD Any Know THAT THIS Chase WAS Unpretentious AND NOT IMAGINED. Any THE Military Option NOT Critique ON THE Raid UNLESS THEY ARE Short of Concerning IT AND Downright Then THEY Option Propel Subsequent to THE FLARES AND THE Maneuvers Show up. IT IS In close proximity Awful TO Observe THEM Treat THIS Chase, IT IS Noticeably Clear THAT THEY DON'T Downright Consider THEIR OWN Account OF Anything TRANSPIRED."
"THE PHOENIX LIGHTS ARE ONE OF, IF NOT THE Limit Basic Raid OF Take notice of, THIS WAS ONE OF TWO Objects, AN Creature from outer space Put up OR IT WAS A Interior Military Put up. IN THE Chase IT WAS A Artificial Put up THE Sound OF Ruse AND THE Gear THEY Restrain IS Frightening AND Odd. "
http://skepticblog.org/2011/07/19/gambling-on-et/
Posted in :
aliens,
are51,
ufo case
|
There are those who believe that the Freedom of Information Act is the gateway to all knowledge about UFOs. If you have a question, just file a FOIA request and the information will be sent to you. Anything you wish to know, you can learn, if you can find the right agency, form your questions intelligently, and if you have a little patience. And I say crapola... Here's why. In the last century, which of course, means fifteen years ago, I wanted a report that had been issued at the White Sands Proving Ground. I provided the precise name of the document, the name of the author and the date it was published. Their response? They I needed more precise information. I confess I don't know what more they could have needed other than where the file cabinet in which it was stored was located and in what office on the base. I bring this up now because in the last year my attempts at FOIA have gone astray. I have, since the report was published in the mid-1990s, attempted to learn more about how the Air Force Roswell reports were ordered. I have asked the Secretary of the Air Force's office, repeatedly, for all information about this including memos, letters, orders, minutes of meetings, and all the other nonessential waste of paper that you would expect from a government bureaucracy. And I have been given the run around. First I was sent to the Government Printing Office and their response was a catalog of documents available. Now I knew that the GPO would not have anything I wanted, but I sent a FOIA to them so that I could say that it wasn't the right place. Second, I was told that the documents had all been transferred to the Air Force Archives, but they said they had sent them on to the National Archives. NARA said, "No," they didn't have them. I returned to the Air Force Archives which gave me the details of the transfer, so it was back to NARA. They said that they did have the records, but they had not been reviewed and that would take a while. Get back to them later... Which I did. But all they had were the records produced in the investigation including the video tapes made by the Fund for UFO Research, a court martial record of a doctor from 1957 that had no significance to the investigation at all, copies of documents that I and other private researchers had sent them, and nothing that filled my request. In the last year I have attempted to get these documents again. I have sent four FOIA requests to the Secretary of the Air Force FOIA office and have not received a single reply. I would have thought that at the very least they would have let me know they received the request as the law requires. The other day, I sent another FOIA request and this time I had to pick a category. Was my request commercial, educational/new or other. I fall into the commercial category, which from the sound of the emails, means they are going to charge me for the service. It seems to suggest they have a new way to stop FOIA. Make it clear it will cost money... and yes, I agreed to pay for the service because it is for a book but the information isn't all that spectacular. The point here is that it doesn't seem that FOIA works as well as it used to. It seems that they can ignore repeated requests, and I really don't want to pay an attorney two hundred dollars an hour to sue them for a response, only to learn that the information is considered vital to national security which would launch another lawsuit. They have the resources to dance, but we out here do not. Oh, I get it that lots of people file FOIA over trivia... but then, if the records weren't hidden away, there would be no need for FOIA. And yes, I understand that some things are a matter of national security, but I'm not sure how that might relate to the Air Force investigations of Roswell since the Air Force said it was a balloon, or how it relates to the radar tracks of a commercial airliner more than two decades ago. FOIA just doesn't work the way it used to and that is really all I'm saying.
Posted in :
aliens,
chemistry,
ufo case
|
By PAUL FUGLEBERG
missoulian.com
3-8-15
... However, that night I experienced my first UFO sighting. It appeared to be too low and too fast for a satellite. Others witnessing the fast-traveling light were my wife as she looked out the kitchen window, a couple of our youngsters and some neighborhood kids playing in the backyard.
The pulsating white light came out of the northwest, and traveled in a straight line to the southeast. It crossed the horizon in less than a minute and made no sound. It seemed to be spinning and had a circular shape.
I had been taking pictures of the kids earlier in the evening and still had the camera with me in the yard. I snapped a picture, but it was a shapeless blurred blob because of slow shutter speed. The picture was taken at a setting of 1/25th of a second with a 5.6 lens opening, using Tri-X film, 120 size, in a Minolta Autocord camera.
What did we see? I don't know. Haven't seen anything like it since, but I'm less skeptical when I hear reports of UFOs now....
Continue Reading...
See Also:
The Lake Tiorati UFO UFO CHRONICLE - 1966
Hynek Says, UFO Photographs NO Hoax UFO CHRONICLE - 1966
UFO Lands Near Nuke Missile Sites; Disrupts Two-Way Radio Communication (8-19-1966) UFOs ">
REPORT YOUR UFO EXPERIENCE
Read more >>
Posted in :
aliens,
spaceplane,
ufo case
|
